The stakes for the Japanese Grand Prix

The baptism of fire in the land of the rising sun. At home, Yuki Tsunoda will experience his first weekend in the Red Bull seat: his results will obviously be scrutinized and compared to those of Liam Lawson. More broadly, after two Grand Prix races in Australia and then in China, a hierarchy seems to be emerging with McLaren leading the way. However, the winding Suzuka circuit remains unique, and surprises cannot be ruled out. It’s a weekend to handle well since Japan marks the beginning of a sequence of three Grand Prix races in three weeks.

Incredible opportunity or poisoned chalice?

Barely 49 points scored in one year… This statistic of points scored by the second Red Bull driver over the last 20 Grand Prix perfectly summarizes the issue with the second seat of the Austrian team. The pressure is strong on Yuki Tsunoda’s shoulders. He has, in fact, opened up before this home Grand Prix. This week promises to be intense, a mix of pressure facing the challenge and excitement. It’s a major step for my career and for what I want to accomplish. An initial answer might be provided as early as the practice sessions, to follow very early on Friday morning.

A little further down the pit lane, Liam Lawson’s reaction will be awaited. Defeated or vengeful? Before the Chinese Grand Prix, Max Verstappen had admitted: « I truly believe that Liam would be faster if he were in the Racing Bulls. I really think so. » Certainly, the four-time world champion was mainly criticizing the lack of performance of his car and defending Liam Lawson. But he probably didn’t expect to be able to verify his theory so soon…

Norris-Piastri, the continuation of the duel

Japan marks the beginning of an important triptych with the sequence of three Grand Prix in three weeks: a period to be well-negotiated for the title contenders. For now, the McLarens are clearly the fastest on the grid. But after two Grand Prix and a sprint race, the standings are not as clear. Lando Norris is currently in the lead with an 8-point advantage over Max Verstappen, 9 over George Russell, and 10 over his teammate. Despite his first weekend being sabotaged in Australia, Oscar Piastri reacted perfectly in China and is almost catching up in the standings. With a Grand Prix victory on each side of the papaya garage this season, the battle promises to be intense.

Within Red Bull, the commotion around the Tsunoda/Lawson swap does nothing to erase the weaknesses the team needs to address week after week. Tire degradation might once again be the Achilles’ heel of the RB21 in Japan. However, the winding track and its series of high-speed curves, like the “S” curves in the first sector, are favorable to this car. In China, the Red Bulls were comfortable in turn 2, which is also a fast curve: a good indicator. Adding the interesting aerodynamic downforce of the car, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Max Verstappen perform once again on this circuit. To the point of challenging the McLarens?

Ferrari and Alpine in search of points

A failed weekend in Australia followed by disappointment in Shanghai despite Lewis Hamilton’s victory in the sprint race: it is now time for Ferrari to achieve a clean and solid weekend. Already lagging in the drivers’ and constructors’ championships, it is nevertheless difficult to assess the Scuderia’s performance according to Frédéric Vasseur: For the whole team, more than ever, we must focus on ourselves to allow Charles and Lewis to fully exploit the potential of the SF-25, as so far, we have only managed this on Fridays and during the sprint in China. […] Once we achieve this, we will have a clearer idea of our position.

Pierre Gasly hopes to score points this weekend, the first in 2025 for Alpine. While it took six races to break the deadlock last year, the French driver is much closer this year: 11th in Australia and also 11th in China before his disqualification for non-compliance with the weight of his car. But the points tally is still empty. It’s the only team on the grid yet to score a point this season. Jack Doohan also plans to respond: « It was good to have a week off to regroup after a complicated start to the season… The goal will be to make the most of the weekend and score crucial points for the team ».

Often unpredictable in Japan, the weather may also play spoil-sport. After a weekend that starts off sunny, a risk of rain is forecast for Sunday… To be continued.