Is the number of wins in F1 a meaningful comparative indicator?
It was inevitable, it's now a done deal. With his 52 victories, the Dutchman surpasses Alain Prost's total by one. A symbol, despite the increase in the number of Grand Prix races in recent years. However, is it really relevant to compare the results of drivers from different eras?
Verstappen had joined Prost after the Mexican Grand Prix, one week before the Brazilian weekend. Overtaking him was just a matter of time, and now it’s done.
The statistical point
In Formula 1 history, there are only 5 drivers who have achieved over 50 victories: Hamilton, Schumacher, Vettel, Verstappen, and Prost. Quite a prestigious club of 5! However, there is a significant gap between Lewis Hamilton’s 103 wins and Alain Prost’s 51.
Between Hamilton and Verstappen, the number of wins is an interesting indicator since these drivers have been competing.
At the same time. But between two distant eras, it raises questions. In this ranking of the number of wins, legends are far down in the hierarchy. This is the case for the 1950s-60s such as Juan Manuel Fangio or Jack Brabham. The first, however, is a five-time world champion but has “only” 24 victories! Brabham, on the other hand, is a triple world champion like Verstappen and has 14 victories…
A number of Grand Prix per season constantly increasing
At that time, the number of Grand Prix races per season fluctuated between 7 and 11. This figure has constantly evolved: we were around 15 GPs in 1990, then 20 from 2010 onwards, and now even more! A logical increase that goes hand in hand with the development of Formula 1 worldwide.
If we take the 1993 season, the one where Alain Prost won his last world championship, there were 16 Grand Prix on the calendar. Today, Verstappen will have competed in 22 Grand Prix by the end of the season. In 2023 compared to 1993, he therefore has 6 additional chances of achieving success.
Indeed, the win ratio in a season reflects the performance of the driver and their machine compared to other drivers, their teammate of course, but also the other machines. A machine that has the advantage in 14 races would probably have had it in the same season with 22 races. If we consider an average of 14 Grand Prix races during the time of Alain Prost, compared to 22 currently, the French world champion could have potentially reached 80 victories. The eras are therefore not comparable due to the differences in the elements that compose them.
Prost: « The numbers are here. They never lie, they speak of the past. »
Interviewed in the columns of “l’Equipe,” (the) Professor takes into account the differences between eras but does not diminish the performance of the reigning champion. The cars are much more reliable, there are many more races per season. And the regulations allow for stronger dominance than before. Attention, I am not trying to minimize the current records. The numbers are there. They never lie, they speak of the past.
Records are meant to be broken, and if F1 keeps expanding, there is no doubt that they will. Alain Prost may increasingly see more drivers surpassing him now.
