Vettel and Red Bull will be champions in Japan if

For many weeks now – not to say months – F1 observers are no longer questioning the possibility of a second title for Vettel but rather the moment and place where it will become effective. According to all likelihood, the German will be crowned in Japan, provided he finishes in the top ten, a formality if we believe the statistics of the Red Bull driver who has averaged 22.1 points this season and is the only one to have always finished. Indeed, by merely scoring the point of 10th place, the German would relegate Jenson Button, his last challenger, at best to 100 points, which is the number of points remaining after the Japanese Grand Prix. With 9 victories already, Sebastian Vettel is already assured of the world champion title in the event of a points tie at the end of the Brazilian Grand Prix.

But the German isn’t the only one who could be crowned this weekend. Indeed, his team can also hope to clinch a second consecutive title. Today, the McLaren team is the only one that can challenge them for this title: 215 constructor points are still up for grabs, and the team based in Woking is “only” 138 points behind its Austrian counterpart, while Ferrari has definitively lost all hope in Singapore, leaving with a deficit of 223 points.

To be crowned in Singapore, Red Bull must have more than a 172-point lead over its English rival. Currently holding a 138-point lead over its British rival, the Austrian team will need to score 34 more points to be crowned as soon as the Japanese Grand Prix. For this, Red Bull will imperatively need to win the race with one of its drivers, as the best result for a team without victory, meaning a second and third place finish, would only yield 33 points, which would be insufficient regardless of McLaren’s result.

It all then depends on the position of the second Red Bull driver and the collective performance of the men from Woking:

– Si Red Bull réalise le doublé – ce qui n’est arrivé que deux fois cette saison, en Turquie et en Belgique -, elle ne sera championne que si McLaren n’inscrit pas plus de neufs points.

– Si Red Bull remporte la victoire et que son deuxième pilote monte sur la troisième marche du podium – comme lors des Grand Prix d’Europe et de Singapour -, elle sera championne si McLaren n’inscrit pas plus de 6 points.

– Si Red Bull remporte la victoire et que son deuxième pilote échoue à la quatrième place, elle sera championne si McLaren n’inscrit pas plus de 3 points.

– Si Red Bull remporte la victoire et que son deuxième pilote termine à la cinquième place, elle sera championne si la meilleure des McLaren ne fait pas mieux que la dixième place en course.

Thus, no matter what happens, if McLaren scores more than 9 points at the end of its Japanese weekend, it will postpone Red Bull’s championship victory, at least until the Korean Grand Prix. Needless to say, it would require a severe underperformance from the Woking team, which has averaged 25.2 points per Grand Prix this season, with their worst result being 12 points scored at the British Grand Prix.

It should be noted that McLaren is now guaranteed to finish the championship at a minimum in 3rd place in the constructors’ standings, while Ferrari could secure it at the Japanese Grand Prix by scoring 18 points more than Mercedes.