All that’s missing is Jules Bianchi…

After the official announcement of Jean-Eric Vergne at Toro Rosso, we start to dream that Santa Claus might bring us, in his sack, a fourth Frenchman on the starting grids in 2012, so that Jules Bianchi completes the band of F1 Musketeers. The Ferrari reserve driver is indeed the last member of the famous quartet to remain on the sidelines, waiting for his moment. The spots available today are rare, but we can legitimately wonder if we’re really at the end of our surprises.

If Bianchi were present on the starting grids in 2012, one would have to go back to the 1995 Pacific Grand Prix to account for such a strong French representation at the start of a race, with the unmissable Jean Alesi and Olivier Panis, but also Jean-Christophe Bouillon and the famous Bertrand Gachot, native of Luxembourg and of Franco-Belgian nationality, who competed in the 1995 season under a French license. But what are the real chances of Jules Bianchi being in a Formula One seat in 2012?

The Ferrari Dilemma

First of all, it should be recalled that young Bianchi is already a reserve driver at Ferrari, a seat in the most prestigious team on the grid but where he has very little chance of racing. As a reserve, Jules could therefore step in for Fernando Alonso or Felipe Massa, but recent experience shows that Scuderia does not always have the reflex to promote its designated reserve driver, as in 1999, after Michael Schumacher’s accident, or more recently, after Felipe Massa’s accident at the 2009 Hungarian Grand Prix.

Moreover, it is also worth considering Bianchi’s rookie status, as the Scuderia had not promoted a rookie since the 1972 British Grand Prix with Arturo Merzario. This was a time when teams could field more than two cars and sometimes even on a purely occasional basis, which allowed young drivers the opportunity to gain experience without having to sacrifice the team’s balance.

For 40 years, Ferrari has relied on its label as a prestigious team to attract already experienced drivers, even if, in the case of Gilles Villeneuve, for example, this experience was limited to one Grand Prix. With Felipe Massa’s accident, the absence of a true detection and support program for young drivers became painfully evident, leading to the creation of the Ferrari Academy of which Jules Bianchi was the first member. However, the Scuderia intends to remain faithful to a proven approach with Felipe Massa, by giving the French driver the opportunity to gain experience with another team before returning to the fold of Maranello… for which volunteers are not exactly lining up.

The Williams track

Pastor Maldonado confirmed, Rubens Barrichello’s place at Williams is highly coveted. Jules Bianchi has been among the contenders for many months, with discussions even confirmed last month by Toto Wolff, shareholder of the Grove team: « The case of Kimi Räikkönen is on the table. […] However, there is another, bolder option with the young Jules Bianchi, and Valtteri Bottas deserves to be considered, at least for Friday testing » said the Austrian in the Kronen Zeitung. Since then, Kimi Räikkönen has discreetly moved to Lotus Grand Prix while Valtteri Bottas has been officially named third driver and reserve.

The Frenchman would have had every chance if Bottas’s appointment hadn’t been accompanied by a statement from Franck Williams outlining the potential profile for the successor to Rubens Barrichello in the last available seat at the English team: « As a reserve driver, we expect Valtteri to participate in Friday morning tests at 15 Grand Prix next season, probably with a more experienced driver taking over for the rest of the weekend. We will reveal the identity of this driver in due course. » Having been rumored for months to be leaving Force India, Adrian Sutil is now in the lead while other experienced drivers are on the market, such as Buemi, Petrov, or Alguersuari, thus closing the door to the last of the musketeers.

Sauber and Force India rumors

Although Sauber confirmed its 2012 line-up, rumors circulated about Jules Bianchi replacing Kamui Kobayashi. Based on the special relationship often maintained between Sauber and Ferrari, as well as the involvement of the Todt family – Nicolas Todt being Bianchi’s manager – this rumor was strongly denied by the Swiss team on Twitter: « Unfortunately, someone published nonsense about Kamui leaving the team. It’s stupid. We appreciate him greatly and he is staying with us! »

Like the decision by Toro Rosso regarding its drivers, it would have been an opportunity to confront in real conditions two of the contenders for Felipe Massa’s succession, who was sitting on an ejector seat for 2013, but it should be noted that Ferrari does not have the same influence over Sauber as Red Bull has over Toro Rosso, and it already has a driver there with Sergio Perez.

In the last few hours, another scenario has emerged, taking the young Frenchman towards Force India. The Indian team, which might announce its 2012 lineup in the coming hours, is considering, according to the Swiss magazine Blick, placing Jules Bianchi in the third driver position. Paul di Resta recently revealed he was working with the team for 2012, while Nico Hülkenberg, who has been waiting all season, hopes to take over Adrian Sutil’s seat, who is expected to leave. Jules Bianchi could then replace Hülkenberg and benefit, like him this year, from a few Friday morning free practice sessions. This would be, in the absence of a permanent position, one of the best solutions for the Frenchman who literally has no chance of driving for Ferrari, except in young driver tests or special circumstances.

Unless, inspired by Red Bull, the firm from Maranello decides to place, with financial backing, Jules Bianchi in the last vacant seat at HRT – which, however, has a technical partnership with McLaren – alongside the experienced Pedro de la Rosa.

The possibilities are therefore limited for Jules Bianchi, but it should be remembered that there were few who believed in Charles Pic’s chances of being on the starting grids in 2012, just as the announcement of Kimi Räikkönen and the competition from Petrov and Senna seemed to narrow the field of possibilities for Romain Grosjean, and the good results at the end of the season from the Buemi/Alguersuari duo made the situation at Toro Rosso unpredictable. After all, doesn’t the proverb say that in the Kingdom of hope, there is no winter?